As bonds have struggled, producing losses in client accounts over the past couple of years, we have had more clients ask the question: Should bonds still have a role in the portfolio?
Traditionally, the answer has been that bonds provide diversification and income. They zig when stocks zag, providing income for spending needs. In finance terms, bonds have “low correlation” levels to stocks, and adding them to a portfolio would help to reduce the overall portfolio risk. However, over the last two years, as the Fed has worked to aggressively raise rates, this correlation has increased. What we saw in 2022 was the bonds fell right along with (and nearly as much as) stocks.
Compound that with the current state of interest rates. One of the most basic investing truisms is you should pursue investments offering a higher interest rate over investments with lower interest rates for the same level of risk. It just makes sense — of course you would want to earn more interest. Another concept involves how soon you get your investment back (liquidity). All else equal, you would want to make shorter-term loans where you would get your principal back sooner rather than later. The only way that you would be willing to lend your money for longer is if you received more interest to do so.
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However, in today’s interest rate environment, investors are earning more on short-term bonds than long-term bonds, as you can see in the chart below. And investors are earning even more on federally insured certificates of deposit (CDs). As the chart below shows, one-year CDs currently pay 5.8% compared to only 4.8% for a 10-year Treasury bond.
(Image credit: Stacy Francis)
Given all this, it seems like a no-brainer to invest in the short-term options and receive the higher interest rates and better liquidity that come with them. If bonds aren’t fully dead, why not at least eliminate the default risk of lending to companies and invest only in short-term CDs and Treasury securities? At first glance, this strategy seems brilliant and, frankly, “too good to be true.” And, of course, that is the case. This is where having a long-term investment approach comes in.
What happens a year from now?
To illustrate the point, let’s think about the longer term. What happens 12 months from now when the one-year CD matures? At that point, investors must look to reinvest the proceeds they receive. Most market pundits expect that the previously mentioned aggressive increase in interest rates by the Fed will at minimum slow the economy dramatically, if not push the U.S. economy into a recession.
If that happens, overall interest rates will fall as the Fed looks to reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth. That makes it highly likely that investors won’t earn the current 5.8% rate if they reinvest their CDs next year.
For those who invested in a two-year CD and accepted the lower 5.1% rate, they don’t have this concern, known as reinvestment risk, for an extra year. The longer term of the current investment, the further investors can push out the concern over reinvestment risk.
When long-term bond prices will rise
Additionally, just as longer-term bonds fell when interest rates went up, the prices of long-term bonds will rise when interest rates go down. That is because investors looking to reinvest the proceeds from their maturing CDs are willing to pay extra for long-term higher rates, which are no longer available in the marketplace.
The result is that bonds in general, and long-term bonds in particular, tend to do very well after the Fed stops raising rates (the Fed left rates unchanged at its latest meeting, in December). A study by Capital Group that looked at how bonds performed after past Fed rate-hiking cycles provides room for optimism — that maintaining a bond position in your portfolio may once again provide positive returns, income and diversification benefits.
According to that study, bonds have provided returns of over 10% in the 12 months following the end of the rate-hiking cycle and have compounded at 7.1% over the next five years, well above the long-term average of 4.8%.
Bonds still play a critical role in portfolios
We still believe that bonds play a critical role in client portfolios and that beginning to shift to longer-term bonds could benefit investors over the long-term, given today’s higher interest rates. It is easy to take a short one- to two-year timeframe and wonder if the world has changed, but successful investing requires a long-term focus of seven to 10 years, incorporating full market cycles.
When you’re working with a financial adviser, they will be there to help you keep that focus and to best position your portfolio to generate the long-term returns necessary to achieve your financial plan. Bonds continue to play an important role in that goal.
Related Content
10 Things You Should Know About Bonds
Should You Buy Bonds Now? What to Consider
Bond Basics: How to Buy and Sell
What's the Deal With Bonds Right Now?
Bond Basics: What the Ratings Mean
Disclaimer
This article was written by and presents the views of our contributing adviser, not the Kiplinger editorial staff. You can check adviser records with the SEC or with FINRA.
Bonds are a vital component of a well-balanced portfolio. Bonds produce higher returns than bank accounts, but risks remain relatively low for a diversified bond portfolio. Bonds in general, and government bonds in particular, provide diversification to stock portfolios and reduce losses.
Ultimately, holding bonds in a portfolio can help with diversification. Often, portfolio solutions (investments made up of carefully selected and managed mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds) will include a fixed income component depending on how much risk you're comfortable with or when you will need your money.
Investment advisers say now is a fine time for bonds. They are a good investment in 2024, experts say, for the same reasons they felt like a bad investment in 2022. That year, the Federal Reserve embarked on a dramatic campaign of interest-rate hikes in response to inflation, which reached a 40-year high.
We suggest investors consider high-quality, intermediate- or long-term bond investments rather than sitting in cash or other short-term bond investments. With the Fed likely to cut rates soon, we don't want investors caught off guard when the yields on short-term investments likely decline as well.
Those close to retirement may switch some of their investments from more aggressive stocks or funds to more stable, low-earning funds like bonds and money markets. Now is also the time to take note of all investments and estimate a timeline for retirement.
They include: Selling bonds because interest rates are about to increase, making your existing bonds less valuable. Selling bonds because its issuer has become financially unstable, raising the risk that it will default on its payments. Selling bonds to take advantage of a current upswing in its market value.
The table on the right shows that bond prices often recover within 8 to 12 months. Unnerved investors that are selling their bond funds risk missing out when bond returns recover. It is important to acknowledge that some of those strong recoveries were helped by bond yields that were higher than they are today.
Rising yields can create capital losses in the short term, but can set the stage for higher future returns. When interest rates are rising, you can purchase new bonds at higher yields. Over time the portfolio earns more income than it would have if interest rates had remained lower.
The 4.28% composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2024 through October 2024 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 1.30% fixed rate of return with the 2.96% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
When the Fed increases the federal funds rate, the price of existing fixed-rate bonds decreases and the yields on new fixed-rate bonds increase. The opposite happens when interest rates go down: existing fixed-rate bond prices go up and new fixed-rate bond yields decline.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Unlike holding cash, investing in bonds offers the benefit of consistent investment income. Bonds are debt instruments issued by governments and corporations that guarantee a set amount of interest each year. Investing in bonds is tantamount to making a loan in the amount of the bond to the issuing entity.
Risk Considerations: The primary risks associated with corporate bonds are credit risk, interest rate risk, and market risk. In addition, some corporate bonds can be called for redemption by the issuer and have their principal repaid prior to the maturity date.
Chances are you bought your I Bonds at the 0.0% fixed rate in 2021 or 2022, so as they are renewing your rates are coming in below 4%, compared to other interest rate accounts at roughly 5%. Keep in mind that cashing out in the first 5 years will cause you to lose your prior 3 months' interest.
How Much Should a 70-Year-Old Have in Savings? Financial experts generally recommend saving anywhere from $1 million to $2 million for retirement. If you consider an average retirement savings of $426,000 for those in the 65 to 74-year-old range, the numbers obviously don't match up.
The rule stipulates investing 90% of one's investment capital toward low-cost stock-based index funds and the remainder 10% to short-term government bonds.
Bonds are generally more stable than stocks but have provided lower long-term returns. By owning a mix of different investments, you're diversifying your portfolio. Doing so can curb the risks you'd assume by putting all of your money in a single type of investment.
Traditional savings and money market accounts allow you to earn interest and access your money right when you need it. Bonds, on the other hand, grow slowly in value and are worth the most after 20 to 30 years. Consider savings bonds for your long-term savings goals.
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